Conflict-ravaged Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a military representative stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".